Why your FeedBurner count will never be accurate
Nearly a week ago, I redirected all of the feeds on this blog to a FeedBurner feed (which allows me to track and manage my feed) and placed the code (provided by FeedBurner) that displays the feed count into a custom HTML widget in my sidebar.
I was ecstatic to see my feed count rise every day. Every morning, I would wake up and check if the FeedBurner fairy had visited me with more subscribers. I would either throw my arms in the air, gleaming in triumph and success or lull my head down in utter shame and defeat. Even with the addition of one subscriber I felt like I had accomplished something.
Boy was I wrong.
I soon learned that the the FeedBurner feed count was about as accurate as a spin wheel. According to Google (the company that now owns FeedBurner), the Feed count is determined by the number of times the feed was accessed by individual machines in the last 24 hours. That means: if a machine does not turn on, then it won’t be counted. That also means: if a machine accesses your feed only once (and does not become a permanent subscriber), it will be counted. Just those two factors alone have the potential to create a substantial margin of error.
Of course there are other factors Google uses to discriminate subscribers. Subscriber counts are also calculated by “matching IP address and feed reader combinations, then using our detailed understanding of the multitude of readers, aggregators, and bots on the market to make additional inferences,” according to Google.
Unfortunately, there does not seem to be a simple way to count feed subscribers. Hence why it is necessary for Google to create an algorithm to determine the number of subscribers.
RSS readers work by refreshing feed lists after timed intervals. A feed reader may seek a refreshed list of feed items every hour but the reader only can request feeds if the machine is on. If the machine is off for 24 hours, FeedBurner will count that feed as absent and not include it in the feed count.
If FeedBurner were to count the number of subscribers that check in over the time span of 48 hours (rather than 24), the number may be more accurate for the average of those two days but will not be a good indicator for the current day. If you suddenly get 50 subscribers on that day, the change will look much less drastic.
Feed reach: the best indicator for the number of subscribers
FeedBurner does a very good job of counting feeds but sometimes good isn’t good enough. If you really want an accurate estimation for the number of subscribers to your blog, you should analyze feed reach rather than feed count.
According to Google, feed reach is based on the number of times an individual has taken action — viewed or clicked — a content item on your blog. You can view your feed reach in the feed’s account page.
Viewer discretion advised: the feed reach number may deflate your ego significantly if you were under the impression that your feed count was accurate. My feed reach isn’t even one-fourth my feed count. I guess I have to spice up my content a bit so subscribers will have an incentive to come back here more often.
Have some SPICES!!!
FeedBurner photo credit: Frank Gruber
Tags: feedburner, rss, subscribe
